Peace Plans Set to be Delivered to Moscow Within Days, Says Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.